Early April 2025 Market Update | A Deep Dive into the New Bright MLS Weekly Update for Greater DC Area | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

How's the NoVA real estate market in early April?

Let's take an early-April look at what weekly data is showing for the Northern Virginia Real Estate market, using a new data source provided by Bright MLS. For all my deep dive market analysis & monthly updates on the NoVA real estate market, including West End Alexandria & Kingstowne areas, check out bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.

Sadly - although not surprising for my profession - most agents will not be aware of this new data source. Even fewer will take to time to assess what this data may mean for their current and future clients.

In late-February, Bright MLS started a weekly market update for the Greater DC Area, with data on New Listings, New Contracts, and Showings. The last data point is notable as it is the first time agents have weekly data on Showings to analyze as another indicator of Buyer activity and trends over time. Prior to this new weekly update, Showing data was only available as a monthly total.

The data is for Fairfax County as a barometer of the overall NoVA market. I created these charts to show week-to-week trends, along with a comparison to the corresponding 2024 week. Also, since a % increase amount for New Listings can be misleading, I quantified the % increase to show how many properties are represented by the increase.

The weekly data is provided for various localities (e.g., Fairfax, Arlington, Loudoun, Prince William, & Stafford Counties, the City of Alexandria, etc.). Although the weekly data does not account for property types, price points, and other elements that affect market activity, this data is a useful resource for trend analysis to assess what the market might be like over the next 4-6 weeks.

Take a look at the "What Should We Be Watching" discussed below the charts.

What should we be watching?

What am I watching in this New Weekly data?

1. I will be looking closely at the April weekly and monthly numbers on New Listings vs. New Contracts. If the increase in New Listings that occurred in March continues, watch to see if New Contracts keep pace with New Listings. If not, inventory will continue to increase as compared to 2024.

2. New Listings each week continue to be substantially higher on a percentage basis than the corresponding week in 2024. However, the actual number of new listings represented by the percentage does not seem to be that significant. See the blue bar in the New Listings chart.

3. New Listings continue to exceed New Contracts each week. However, the net number of listings added is a small percentage of the total Coming Soon/Active listings.

For example, the week ending April 6th had a net +82 properties (New Listings > New Contracts), which is 5.3% of the 1531 properties in Coming Soon/Active status this morning (April 8th).

Over the past four (4) weeks (week ending March 16th through week ending April 6th, the net difference of New Listings versus New Contracts is +240 properties. Over time, the weekly differential can/could lead to increased inventory that is statistically noticeable, especially if coupled with houses taking longer to go under contract.

Keep in mind these weekly increases are for Fairfax County as a whole, across all property types and price points. We do not have any information to know where the New Listings and New Contracts are located or how they may/may not overlap. If the New Listings and New Contracts are focused on different property types, locations, and price points, that disconnect can lead to higher or lower inventory in certain market segments.

For example, the TH Micro-Market that I continually track (i.e., all THs Inside the Beltway to approximately 5 miles outside, with at least 1500 finished sq.ft., 3 beds, 2 full baths, 1-car garage, and a price range of $800K-$1.2M) has seen a notable increase in inventory over the past three 3 weeks (mid-20s to 41 THs this morning). The increase is due to new TH listings and THs taking longer to go under contract.

So, you must track market segments that are relevant to a specific byer or seller (& house type, location, price point, etc.). The overall Fairfax County (or other jurisdictions) or the NoVA market data is relevant info to be aware of, but is secondary to the directly relevant market segment.

4. Showings in the week ending April 6th were down by 26.5% versus the same week in 2024, after being up the prior week versus 2024 by a similar amount (+23.5%). However, over the past four (4) weeks, total Showings are similar to the same four week period in 2024.