A Mid-March Look at the NoVA 2025 Spring Market. What Comes Next? | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

The height of the Spring real estate market starts in early April based upon historical data. As we get close to this peak period, let's take a look at the Northern Virginia real estate market through Mid-March in two charts. Check out the "What Should We Be Watching" section at the end of this post.

The data is for Fairfax County as a barometer of our overall market.

While the 2nd chart above shows several different data trends, the data that caught my immediate attention is the relationship between Active Listings vs. New Contracts & New Listings in January & February 2025 compared to 2024. More on this chart in the "What Should We Be Watching" section below.

• The first chart is a 2-week Fairfax County Contracts trend chart through the March 1-15 period.  We continue to track (slightly behind) 2024 and 2023 numbers through the first 2 ½ months.

  
  

  I started tracking these numbers in January to see if there was any difference in buying activity (i.e., New Contracts) in late-January versus the first-half or second-half of February. The reason was to assess whether to list a client's house in Active status in late-January when ready, or wait until some time in February to shift to Active status.

The answer to my question is that over the past two years (2023-2024) there was no material difference in number of Contracts in these three two-week periods. The same held true in 2025 for the second-half of January vs. first-half or second-half of February.

Buying activity increases by 30-35% in March versus February. Through mid-March, 2025 is following this historical trend.

• In Jan & Feb, Active inventory was up nearly 25% versus 2024 due to houses taking longer to sell, not due to an increase in properties newly listed for sale.  New Listings were down slightly in Jan (-7.2%) & Feb (-3.2%).

• For the 1st half of March, New Contracts are slightly behind the March 2024 and 2023 levels (517 in 2025/551 in 2024/528 in 2023).  New Contracts in Jan & Feb trailed 2024 Contracts (-10.7% & -3.5%). See the 1st chart above for the 2-week tracking of New Contracts in January through June.

• New Listings are up 20% in 1st half of March versus 2024 (Bright Greater DC Area weekly market updates for weeks ending March 9th and March 16th).

  
  

  A 20% increase sounds significant, but let me quantify this increase for you as follows.

  • Week Ending March 16th:         

    399 New Listings.

    17% increase over same week in 2024.

    58 more properties.

    
    

  • Week Ending March 9th:            

    379 New Listings.

    23.5% increase over same week in 2024.

    72 more properties.

  The total increase is around 130 properties. The Bright weekly report only provides the total number of New Listings, so we do not know the property type, location, price points, etc.  Also, a percentage increase to an already low inventory number can be a misleading number.  Given the size of Fairfax County, there will be many – probably most – market segments and geographic areas that have not seen any material increase in inventory over these two weeks.

  
  

  I want to see at least two more weeks of data before making assessments about any increase in new listings (and a possible cause). 

What should we be watching?  What am I watching?

1. I will be looking closely at the March and April weekly and monthly numbers shown in the 2nd chart.  If the increase in New Listings over the first two weeks of March continues (per Bright’s new weekly market report for the Greater DC area), watch to see if New Contracts keep pace with New Listings.  If not, inventory will continue to increase as compared to 2024.

   
   

2. If we continue to track with 2024 and 2023 numbers through April into May, we may have to view these monthly numbers are our “new normal” until we have a material change to economy/mortgage rates.  Just as the monthly/annual Sale numbers for 2015-2019 were within a predictable, narrow range.

   
   

3. Also, it may be that the 2023-2024 (and 2025 numbers so far) represent a baseline/lowest level of transactions that will occur given the economic/demographics/mobility factors for our area (absent an economic disruption that could move the numbers lower).